Article by Thierry Richard, Watch Expert
Something in the watch market has changed. Many say that this change is due to a “bubble” generating a surprising increase in price. The price of luxury items, more specifically pre-owned watches, has skyrocketed in the past 20 months leaving all buyers perplex on what is going on. But can it really be said that this market is in a bubble?
Let start by saying that a bubble is generally characterized by an unjustified or rather irrational increase in prices fueled by scarcity, speculation and greed. Of course, this is a sensitive topic as it creates strong feelings, as value is so often subjective. That said, those who are participating in a certain way whether from passion, profit or both will always have something to say about if a bubble is forming or not and when it might burst.
Like the real estate and stock market, luxury goods such as watches can have correction and often reflect the sentiment of the market but on smaller scale. Fear of a recession, a global event such as war, inflation and supply chain distortion can all have a consequence on the watch market.
Because I am a watch guy, we will discuss how a bubble could transform the watch industry and when it might burst and why.
The Recipe of a Bubble
First, let me walk you through how a bubble is formed.
You will recognize a bubble by its’ five phases. First, we witness a Dwindling Availability when you see inventory and availability of a specific item shrinking or gone altogether. Then comes The Boom Phase, when price increases and gathers momentum as more participants enter the market. The media then takes over and the fear of missing out on what could be a once in a lifetime opportunity spurs more speculation from an increasing number of buyers. Then derives The Euphoria phase, when watch buyers throw both logic and caution out of the window. Prices are out of control. New valuation metrics are created to justify the price increase, the phenomenon is all over social media and buyers believe no matter how high prices go, there will be always other willing to pay more. Slowly comes The Price Top Out, when prices reach their peak and sellers start dumping. Profits narrow as prices fall. But this irrational bubble can last longer than we imagine as emotions are involved. Finally, The Burst occurs, and the market falls apart. Panic sets in for the speculators and they liquidate at any price flooding the market with merchandise.
Rolex Daytona 116500 - Image via Xupes
What happened?
Before we jump the gun, let’s back track and see what happened during the past 24 months and where we stand today.
During the pandemic, as the world stood still, money was printed and sent away, some people accumulated more disposable income and money floated into the real estate, stock, crypto and watch market boosting the consumer confidence and creating more millionaire than ever. The investor who didn’t care about luxury watches before suddenly saw an opportunity to make money. Flippers entered the game; popstars wrote song about their timepieces and social media became the vehicle of choice to share this unique opportunity.
At the same time, brands chose to tighten their inventory production on purpose or not, creating a perfect recipe for scarcity. Therefore, with close to no watches in store available for purchase or with 2-6 years long waiting list, the boom has been driven mostly by online platforms. With players like Watchfinder or Watchbox and Chrono24 which remain the world’s leading online marketplace for luxury watches with over $2.4 billion in transactions in 2020. This represents almost $1 billion increase compared to 2019.
So, thanks to internet and social media, the second-hand luxury watch market has become not only acceptable but now, trending and cool. Clients have larger access to information and watch brands can no longer ignore the phenomenon. The pre-owned watch market is an opportunity to influence the long-term value of products, increase brand equity and most importantly, to recruit new customers. Some brands are taking initiative such as H.Moser & Cie and FP Journe with tailored Certified Pre-Owned offers, or more recently Zenith. For Julien Tornare, CEO of Zenith the brand’s Zenith icons program is the opportunity to “provide, via a trusted channel, a supply of second or third-hand Zenith watches that are authenticated, checked and maintained by the brand, so that we are sure that our end-users are getting the quality we want, and they deserve”. That said, pre-owned watches from the big four such Rolex, Audemars Piguet, Patek Philippe, Richard Mille and even some Hublot were selling 5X on the secondary market for all the reasons above.
Will the Bubble burst?
What you see in today’s watch market is a balancing act between inflation and customer confidence. Two opposites, both high. Confident consumers spending money is the key. However, if inflation continues to stay high and shows no signs of falling soon, choosing between wants and needs becomes a bit easier. After a while, the cost of living won’t leave room for even a “sure bet” on a watch.
Subsequently, with the world opening again, the opportunistic trader and flippers who over-leveraged themselves now find themselves in a bit of a pickle. They need to get rid of their acquired watches to meet financial obligations and/or to minimize their losses. The result will be lower prices on the gray market and eventually high stock at the official dealers. It’s also worth noting that because of various reasons, watch buyers are now so frustrated with gray market prices and the unavailability of steel sports watches from Rolex or Audemars Piguet that they have changed their behavior. It’s becoming a matter of “enough is enough,” you could say. Still, it took consumers long enough to reach that point and prices recently dropped -40% on certain pre-owned models.
However, as we discovered, it can be almost impossible to correctly spot a bubble every time, although there are certain signs of which to be wary.
As I said, consumer confidence is high despite a high inflation rate. And one way to protect yourself against inflation is by buying a luxury timepiece, one with a stable level of demand like a Submariner Rolex. Unlike other assets, watches are goods that in addition to having potential investment value and the possibility of being used. Even the younger generations have come to understand this.
Consequently, despite the uncharacteristic market spike and the potential correction in price, I believe watches are still a good alternative investment. The demand will continue to grow because apart from an object that shows status, or the more refined idea that wearing a mechanical timepiece shows knowledge and appreciation of traditional craftsmanship, watches represent an alternative asset class that is collectible, highly portable, and scarce considering growing market demand and limited production. From a certain point of view, this could protect the timepiece market from a dizzying and rapid fall. Thus, I believe that even though we might be in a bubble, watches are still a promising market, and that We might even see new brands gaining in popularity. Time will tell…
Rolex Submariner 116610LV - Image via Bob’s Watches