Is Miami's Population Actually Shrinking? Is The City In Trouble? Not So Fast The Numbers Say...
Last week headlines from news outlets such as the The Wall Street Journal, the Miami Herald and The New York Times rang out that Miami was in trouble and the population was shrinking fast. The articles closely followed a debacle at Business Insider after the outlet published an article claiming that in 2021 more people had moved out of Florida than either New York or California; but, Business Insider later had to retract and correct the story after one of their writers had mistakenly flipped around the numbers and published with the article without double checking. Numerous press outlets and their writers have been fast to attack all aspects of Florida from its politics to its people, climate and even lifestyle.
The recent flurry of articles targeting The City of Miami and Miami-Dade County’s population loss cite US Census Data, citing 79,535 residents moved out of Miami in from 2020 to 2022 and were compiled using a report from Brooking Institute. The report compiles 38 counties with over 500K in population. The report shows that The City of Miami and Miami-Dade County only lost population during the peak of the COVID-19 Pandemic, from July 2020 to July 2021. With same data set after peak the peak Covid-19 Pandemic year, both Miami-Dade and Miami returned to population gain, while New York and Los Angeles did not. Miami-Dade was one of 11 counties of which returned to population growth that year, from 2021 to 2022. The drop in population was contributed to by closed boarders and other factors caused by the pandemic, but the numbers fail to show the claimed multi-year population drop that has consistently been headlined.
One of the targets of the articles was Miami’s real estate market, in which rising prices have driven some residents to look for cheaper housing elsewhere, while local housing is absorbed by high-income earners moving into Miami. IRS data shows that during 2020 to 2021 shows 45,430 people moved into Miami-Dade County, up 15% from the level in 2020, 39,562 people, and up 20% from the level in 2019, which was 37,630. According to a report by Miami REALTORS using IRS data, households that moved into Miami-Dade rose by $10.4 billion in adjusted gross income, which was up 131% from 2020, where the number was just $4.5 billion. During this period households that moved out of Miami had an adjusted gross income of $3.9 billion, for a $6.4 billion gain.
These new high earning residents have driven rent prices up well over pre-pandemic pricing despite the boost in new inventory coming online. Miami ranks 7th in the nation for housing shortages, reflected by its job growth-to-building permits ratio of 20.2. The data shows that the growth of the job market is outpacing the construction of new housing units. As a result, the limited housing supply leads to increased housing costs and affordability challenges for residents. While there may not be the same mad scramble for real estate as in 2021, Zumper data shows that the average rent in Miami for a 1-bedroom apartment in August 2023 is $2,763, an 8% increase over the previous year. The average rent for a 2-bedroom apartment in Miami is $3,800, an a 11% increase over to the previous year.
While Miami’s resident population number may fluctuate as the city grows, one number has shown Miami-Dade County’s strength on a global scale. Data from The Greater Miami Convention and Visitors Bureau showed that in 2022 over 26.5 million visitors came to Miami-Dade County, resulting in $20.8 billion in tourism revenue, up 8% from 2021. Nights booked at hotels were up 12.7% during that period where gross hotel revenue grew by 29% and occupancy up 8%.
The conclusion shows that while The City of Miami and Miami-Dade County's population may fluctuate, especially as the city and county continue to grow and add new jobs and infrastructure, the population is still on the rise and showing positive velocity while high-income earners are moving into the city and driving its growing economy. Miami-Dade County has grown into a global leader for finance and tourism as a new wave of commercial development continues to activate the city. The City of Miami and Miami-Dade County are global hotspots for business, travel and migration, not showing the signs of a troubled metro-area.
Sources:
[1] Wall Street Journal - “Miami Sees Its First Population Drop in Decades”
[3] Brookings Institute - Pandemic-driven population declines in large urban areas are slowing or reversing, latest census data shows
[4] United States Census Bureau - Growth in the Nation’s Largest Counties Rebounds in 2022
[5] Analytics.Miami - https://www.instagram.com/reel/CvssQQqtsdN/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==
[6] SOI Tax Stats – Migration Data | Internal Revenue Service (irs.gov) SOI Tax Stats – Migration Data | Internal Revenue Service (irs.gov)
[7] Miami REALTORS - “In-Migration Boosted South Florida Household Income by $16 Billion in 2021”
[8] Zumper - https://www.zumper.com/rent-research/miami-fl