Since thousands of businesses were deemed non-essential and forced to shut their doors, reemployment assistance claims over the last six weeks have surpassed two million in South Florida. With a tourism-dependent economy plus an older population, Florida is more vulnerable to economic shock, which is why it is one of the top five states with the highest number of claims. The longer the standstill goes on, the worse the economic fallout will be. 

As May rents come due and unemployment rates continue to jump, providing assistance to households should be a top priority for policymakers. The prospect of a rent strike has been trending in the news and on social media, but a voluntary movement to skip rent payments could destabilize not only the housing market, but the American economy as well. How many months of working capital do small businesses have to stay afloat, in order for those furloughed and laid off employees to have jobs to return to after nationwide and state stay-at-home orders are eased and how will South Florida’s real estate market fare in the coming months? 

May Day: May 1st Is Here

Multifamily landlords were pleasantly surprised with April collections. In an exclusive webinar interview hosted by PROFILE last week, President of Tate Capital, James Tate, who has over $1B assets under management, told us “We’re 90% collected,” talking about his 10,000+ door multifamily portfolio. Now it’s May 1st and everyone is wondering what May rent collections will be. “May 1st will be a good deciding point to see how many people default,” added Allen Morris, Chairman and CEO of the Allen Morris Companies.  

Morris said his April multifamily rent collections were at 95%. He’s opening two new apartment buildings in Orlando this summer and is taking a proactive leasing approach. “People are signing leases, assuming the University of Central Florida is holding its fall semester. We’re giving tenants a guarantee in their lease. If they delay opening the university, we will delay rent until school opens.” Offering tenants flexibility gives them the security to sign leases now and is helping to forge a positive landlord-tenant relationship that will be dependent on open communication, should issues with payment arise in the future. 

Trending: Socialist Whispers

With talks of rent strikes sweeping the country, landlords have been portrayed as vultures preying on the pockets of financially insecure tenants, when they remain responsible for property taxes and other carrying costs that help pay for public improvements, education and other municipality benefits. Diligent landlords are communicating with their tenants and weeding out those who are taking advantage of the public health crisis, says Shahab Karmely, CEO of KAR Properties. Those who can, should pay rent to support the services their communities need. Those directing their frustrations toward landlords may have valid concerns: with the economy shut down by government-mandated order, how are people supposed to pay bills and keep businesses running?  

In New York, politicians pushing socialist rhetoric and big government reach such as Alexandria Ocasio Cortez have called for rent strikes and rent cancellations. Movements in New York City even claim to have “identified” landlords who can take a “shave”. Lack of payment means that owners will not be able to stay in business and manage the building to the tenant’s expectations, including paying for things like common area maintenance (think: how much does it cost for a cleaning crew to wipe down all public surfaces in a building multiple times a day). Landlords also pay property tax, insurance, debt service, management fees and capital expenditures for improvements. 

Most commercial real estate investments are made by an owner contributing an equity portion to a project, but a majority of the total costs are funded through debt that is usually collateralized by the asset (if it’s senior debt). Typical sources of debt include pension and life insurance funds, which could be the life savings of either a tenant or a landlord. When landlords are unable to meet their debt obligations, the cascading effects don’t stop at their coffers, but trickle down to all Americans. Not making rent payments could derail future opportunities for many, including someone’s retirement age. 

Karmely added “The real pandemic to hit New York City multifamily was the legislature that strangled the landlords in this business,” which will continue to make Florida’s real estate investment climate more attractive. Multifamily product in New York City has been trading between 3-5% cap rate, depending on the neighborhood. The low trading cap rates for core product has made some investors nervous about paying such a premium for an asset that the New York government has so much control over. 

Another risk for New York investors is that South Florida’s pricing for comparative rental and condo inventory is cheaper than it’s NYC counterpart, while providing higher quality-of-life with more space and building amenities. From an investment perspective, it is also easier to manage assets in Florida where there is no government-enforced rent control, rent stabilization, or near-impossible eviction procedures for delinquent tenants.

Opportunities on the Horizon

The cure to the virus is causing an economic calamity that is hitting everybody and everything, which means opportunities will be on the horizon three to four months from now when property owners' cash reserves run dry, especially for retail and restaurant real estate assets. 

Many have posited, is the cure worse than the virus? How long can residential and commercial tenants pay their rent amid an economic shutdown? Will we be able to produce our way out of a recession with unemployment in the double digits? Likely not - Uncle Sam will be waiting in the shadows with hand outstretched to collect his dues. As we all sit on the sidelines, awaiting our fates, the solution appears to be a function of time. 

“My biggest concern is that we were hit with an 11 magnitude earthquake, and we all got knocked down. Unfortunately, after a major earthquake in coastal areas there is a tsunami. My concern is how are these small businesses supposed to remain open and sustain themselves for the next six to eight months unless something material is done by the federal government? Who’s going to hire those 30 million unemployed people back? If you ask me why I can’t sleep at night, that’s what I’m really concerned about,” opined Tate to cheers of “Jimmy Tate for President!” 

-- Special reporting by the PROFILEmiami Team. Isabella Zimmermann, Katya Demina and Demetri Demascus contributed to this article.